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April 7, 2011

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The Hits Keep on (not) Coming

Tony La Russa threw a tantrum during his post-game press conference today. Reporters were asking him the questions that were on the minds of Cards fans everywhere. Why isn’t the team hitting? His response, via this STLtoday.com article:

For everybody listening out there (TV audience), you think I’m being unreasonable? It’s the FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON. I don’t understand this. Are you going to tell me Yadier doesn’t drive in big runs? Are you going to tell me Albert can’t hit? Are you going to tell me the second baseman and shortstops haven’t hit? David Freese? You don’t think he’s going to hit? You think Matt’s gong to hit? You think Colby’s going to hit? You think Berkman’s going to hit? The answer is ‘no’ to all those things?’

Did you (interrogators) accomplish your goal? Three, four times, you ask so I get excited and get upset? That’s not fair. It really isn’t.

Then he walked away. You could say he was a little irritated.

Angry Red Birds

Artist's Rendition of Tony La Russa's Press Conference

I understand that this is a frustrating time for TLR. It’s a frustrating time for everyone who wants to see the Cardinals win. And I’m sure that TLR wants to see them win as much as anyone, though playing Skip Schumaker at 2B is a funny way of showing it. The anger, however, is uncalled-for. That’s because this slump is absolutely mystifying. Every pitcher we face has turned into Bud Norris.

The reporters have every right to ask their questions. Yes, it is only the first six games. But the first six games count just as much as the last six games. This has also been the first six games for the Padres and Pirates pitchers. Maybe they didn’t get the memo that these games don’t matter.

It’s a small sample size, obviously. But the numbers are so bad and the pitchers in question are so bad that it has to call something into question. Let’s look at some of the lowlights:

In these first six games, the Cardinals had 8 extra base hits. This number is remarkably low. The Houston Astros, the worst hitting team in the NL last season, averaged about 2.4 XBH a game. Houston slugged .362 last year, the Cards are struggling around .300. In this same time, the Cards have 10 GIDP. They are more likely to get doubled up with a man on first than drive him home with a 2b, 3b, or HR. Last year, the Giants led the league by hitting into a double play almost once a game. The Cardinals are on pace to double that.

But as I already pointed out, it’s a small sample size. The Cardinals won’t slug below .300 or hit into 300 double plays. That would be historically terrible. Even the 1899 Cleveland Spiders slugged .305. BUT consider the starting pitchers the Cardinals have faced in these six games:

Tim Stauffer: A 28 year old with 39 career starts. Stauffer has spent most of his career in the bullpen, amassing a 4.04 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in spacious Petco. He throws around 90 mph. A former 4th pick overall, he’s got a nice breaking ball but not much else.
Clayton Richard: Arguably a left-handed Tim Stauffer. Has similar stuff and has put together a career 4.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. Struggles with control a bit more than Stauffer, but has a slightly better K/9. Relies more on his fastball. Richard at least had a decent season in 2005 (again, getting his home starts in Petco). In fact neither Stauffer or Richard are particularly bad pitchers. They’re just mediocre.The real crap starts with…
Dustin Moseley: 5.13 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in his career. 4.57 xFIP. K/9 under 5. Doesn’t have any dominant pitches. Doesn’t make up for it with stellar control. Shut down the Cards completely for 7 innings.
Charlie Morton: Maybe the worst. 5.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.54 xFIP. Hits around 91-92 with his fastball and according to fangraphs, he threw 85% fastballs in his game against the Cards. Despite this, he walked 5 batters. He only gave up 1 run. He’s not a power pitcher. He was throwing mainly one pitch. He wasn’t locating that pitch. Five walks, two strikeouts, one run. FUCK.
James McDonald: The fact that he’s the Pirates 5th starter should say everything. The Cardinals didn’t figure him out, but they didn’t get shut down like he was Charlie Morton. They managed 2 runs in 4.2 innings. Still… He’s the Pirates 5th starter.
Kevin Correia: 4.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.47 xFIP. Gives up a lot of fly balls. Unlike the other guys the Cards faced, has a much longer record of mediocrity. There’s probably a decent amount of video tape on him in the Cards’ library, too. Still managed to shutout the Cards.

So that’s it. Those are the six starters who have given the Cardinals fits over the last six games. Yes, TLR, it’s only six games. It’s only the first six games of the season. But what is this team going to do when it faces Roy Halladay? Cliff Lee? Tim Lincecum? We put up historically bad numbers against six mediocre-to-awful pitchers. We didn’t hit a single one of them hard. Not one.

That’s why there were so many questions at the press conference today. The reporters’ goal wasn’t to get TLR upset. They were concerned, because this “FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON” has been absolutely terrible.

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April 4, 2011

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Just One Jaime Garcia Short of a Disaster

Without Jaime Garcia, I’m not sure how I’d be feeling about the Cardinals right now. As it is, I’m pessimistic. But that pessimism is tempered by the victory today. It’s always thrilling to see a CG shutout, especially one as dominant as Garcia’s performance against the Padres. He struck out nine, walked only two, and allowed four hits over 102 pitches. The game lasted just a tick over two hours.

It was a masterful, breezy performance that featured only two scary moments. The first was the sixth inning, where Garcia’s control faltered after giving up a hit to the opposing pitcher and he needed a heads-up play from should-be 2B Daniel Descalso to get out of a jam. The second scary moment was going into the ninth inning, when I thought La Russa might pull Garcia for Ryan Franklin.

I feel good about Garcia, since he was a question mark coming out of spring training. But just about everyone else has been disappointing in the first three games of the season.

Game one was marred by a few tough breaks, but many of the Cards problems were highlighted out of the gate. It was hard to ignore the sub-par defense from Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot up the middle. I’ve harped on that enough, though. The hitting was spotty and just like last year they just couldn’t string enough baserunners together to get runs across the plate. Miguel Batista is probably the worst pitcher on the staff and he’s apparently the late-inning set-up guy.

And then there’s Ryan Franklin, who ultimately blew the save when he gave up a game-tying home run to Cameron Maybin in the ninth inning.

I think it’s important to focus on Franklin. Franklin is not a good pitcher. He’s never been a good pitcher. He’s had some incredible luck with the Cardinals over the last couple of years and put up some impressive front page statistics that have put him in the role of “closer”. He’s had a good ERA and save conversion rate, and that would be fantastic if it actually meant anything.

The truth about Franklin is that his best pitch is a fastball that hovers around 91 mph and has just enough movement to keep it out of batting practice. He only strikes out six batters per nine innings, and walks 2-3. He’s given up a lot of HR in every year except 2009 which, unsurprisingly, was the year he had a fluke 1.92 ERA. Historically, over 40% of batted balls in play against Franklin are fly balls, so he doesn’t get double plays or even keep the ball in the infield.

At some point, the Cardinals are going to have to move Franklin out of the closer role. I don’t particularly believe in the necessity of a dominant closing pitcher. It’s probably better to leverage individual situations and use the pitcher better suited for the moment. However, I don’t see Tony La Russa–who practically invented the modern closer–moving towards that sort of idea. So whoever has the vaunted “closer” label will see a lot of one run and two run leads. Franklin, who doesn’t have great control and gives up a lot of fly balls, is not who we want out in those situations. He was never who we wanted out there. We just got away with it for a long time. We can’t expect to continue to get away with it.

In game two of the series, Cardinals pitchers managed to give up 11 runs to a lineup that featured Orlando Hudson in the third spot. Westbrook and Motte looked awful, though they didn’t have much help from Ryan Theriot, who looked even worse than expected. I was pining for Brendan Ryan even after he was thrown out on a bone-headed play in Seattle later that day.

Sunday should have been a disaster, too. The Cardinals bats were dead, flailing hopelessly against the ace pitching of Padres’ fifth starter, Dustin Moseley. He looked like Bud Norris out there, inducing weak hit after weak hit. This is the sort of pitcher the Cardinals, even without Holliday, should light up. He’s a perpetually fringe 29 year old righthander with an 89 mph fastball. He has more earned runs in his career than strikeouts. Today, he held the Cardinals to a single tally (not earned) over seven innings. We got four hits off of him, all singles, and if not for Jaime Garcia’s absolute dominance he would have led his team to a sweep.

That’s bad. Real bad. The Cardinals need to improve if they’re going to do anything but break our hearts this season. They have to hit the pitchers everyone else hits. They have to have someone better in the ninth for close games–Jaime Garcia won’t finish it every time. And damn it, they have to be able to field baseballs that are hit between third and first.

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March 29, 2011

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Miguel Batista or: How I Learned How to Stop Pitching and Give Up the Bomb

The Cardinals opening day roster was announced today. There were very few surprises. Kyle McClellan won the starting role vacated by Adam Wainwright when he announced his injury and broke the spirits of Cardinals fans everywhere. Jason Motte fortunately didn’t lose his spot because of a weak spring. Tyler Greene, Ryan Theriot, and Skip Schumaker are all present and willing to give up their individuality to blend into an indistinguishable mass of hustle, scrap, and grit. The only real shock is the presence of rookie Bryan Augenstein instead of Fernando Salas.

Augenstein came out of nowhere to put together a fantastic spring. He struck out 13 and walked only 3 in just over 11 innings. He completely deserves his spot on the MLB roster. If everyone is determined to make the competition for the last bullpen spot a battle between Augenstein and Salas, then the Cardinals made the right choice. Augenstein out-pitched Salas and earned a spot on the team.

But it’s not that simple. The real story here isn’t that Augenstein beat out Salas. The real story, or what everyone should be talking about, is the selection of Miguel Batista over Salas.

Miguel Batista is the 40 year old author of the crime novel Through the Eyes of the Law and, apparently, still a major league pitcher. Last year, with the Washington Nationals, he had an ERA of 3.70 and a 1.33 WHIP. These numbers are deceptively mediocre. He wasn’t nearly that passable.

In 82 innings, Miguel Batista struck out 55 batters and walked 39. He gave up 9 HR and had a BAbip of .257. His career BAbip is .299. So basically he was just lucky. He was lucky to be sufficient. And he’s only a year older now. His stuff is fading. He’s made an admirable career of being just decent enough (which is a lot better than most people could ever be in MLB) but it’s probably time to hang up the spikes.

I’m sure some people will point to Batista’s stats in spring training as the reason he made the team. He had a 1.59 ERA! That’s amazingly low! That would have been one of the best seasons in history if extrapolated to 162 games!

Spring training stats are meaningless. Especially for relievers. Relievers enter games in the later innings, when the starters are on the bench. The prospects and AAA fodder are taking at-bats. Most of the batters Batista faced in spring training were not MLB caliber players.

And that makes the next part worse. Miguel Batista didn’t really have a good spring. In eleven innings, he only struck out 6 and walked five. He also hit one batter and gave up 9 hits. That’s not good. That’s bad. He had a bad spring training and he still made the team.

Meanwhile, Fernando Salas gave up only 4 hits. He struck out 8 and walked 7 (still not great). He didn’t give up any HR. He even had an !!ERA!! of 0.73. So not only did he do the important things as well, or better, than Batista…he was also better at the unimportant things. He was better in every way.

And that’s not surprising. While Miguel Batista was lucking into mediocrity last season, Fernando Salas was putting up good numbers for the Cardinals in MLB and AAA. Salas had 29 strikeouts and 15 walks in thirty MLB innings last year. In AAA he had an exceptional 11.1 K/9.

There is no reason for Miguel Batista to make the MLB team this year while Salas continues to play in AAA. The bullpen is a weakness for the team. Instead of putting the best players out there, a washed-up veteran gets playing time over a MLB-ready rookie.

I wish I could say this was a surprise.

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March 25, 2011

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Middle Infield: A Work in Regress

A few days ago, the Seattle Mariners announced that Brendan Ryan would be their starting shortstop. Jack Wilson would move to second base. Ryan, of course, was the Cardinals shortstop last year. Wilson is a former Cards farmhand. He was traded 10 years ago for LOOGY Jason Christiansen. This was Walt Jocketty’s second worst trade as Cards GM, which says more about Jocketty’s success than Wilson’s talent.

Ryan is a very similar player to Wilson. They are both phenomenal fielders and poor hitters, though they show unexpected flashes of adequacy at the plate that can probably be explained by sample size and luck. It’s strange to see them paired up. They will combine to form a terrifying vacuum of offense in the lineup and on the field.

I want to poke fun at the Mariners middle infield. I want to call out the strange decision to let Jack Wilson and his clone get at-bats in the same game. I’m not sure I like their thinking that other infielders can play 2b even if they aren’t experienced there. It didn’t work terribly well with Chone Figgins, and Wilson hasn’t played there in the pros. But I can’t focus on any of these things in good faith because I look back at the Cardinals and they’re doing something even worse:

Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot.

Whenever I start to think about opening day, whenever I start to get excited that baseball is going to begin, I remember that our middle infield consists of Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot. They are memento mori. They remind me that I, too, will die.

Skip Schumaker is not a 2B.

To be honest, I thought the experiment was interesting. I was glad the Cardinals were willing to experiment with the defensive spectrum. I’m still glad the Cardinals are willing to experiment with the defensive spectrum. Lance Berkman in RF scares me, but it’s an exciting gamble.

But Schumaker is not a 2B. We tried. It was a worthy attempt. He’s a hard-nosed, athletic player who didn’t hit well enough to be a corner OF but played infield in college. I don’t blame the Cardinals or Tony La Russa for trying to make him a 2B. If it worked, it would have been great. But it didn’t. After two years, he’s still defensively one of the worst infielders in the majors. Total Zone numbers put him at -6 runs in the field last yar. UZR puts him at -15.4. Fielding Bible +/- had him at -9. He had 16 errors.

I’m wary about fielding statistics. Sometimes they disagree with each other. Sometimes they aren’t consistent year-to-year. But every single one agrees that Skip Schumaker is an absolutely horrible infielder. It’s a consensus, and no one who sees him play would argue against it.

Of course, if he hit well I’d be happy to ignore all those numbers. Defensive statistics aren’t as good as offensive statistics and it’s easy for a good hitter to thrive as a bad fielder, even at a position like 2B. Jeff Kent was a bad 2B and it was foolish to complain about his defensive issues. Dan Uggla is awful but his OPS is in the .800s.

Last season Schumaker had a line of .265/.328/.338. Those aren’t the numbers you want if you’re putting up with a terrible infielder. Those are the sort of numbers that are somewhat easily replaceable, even on the infield. Those are the sort of numbers that would get a guy released if he was an outfielder. And Skip Schumaker is an outfielder.

Schumaker, however, is only half the problem. The Cardinals are replacing the defensive wizardry of Brendan Ryan with the defensive shoddy workmanship of Ryan Theriot. Theriot comes to the Cardinals from the Cubs by way of the Dodgers.

Theriot hit .270/.321/.312 last year, which is to say he was a worse batter than Skip Schumaker. He’s a better fielder, though, and if he was going to be the 2B at least that would be something to feel good about. However, Theriot will be the starting SS for the Cardinals. He barely played at SS last year, but (to be fair) it wasn’t entirely his fault. He was moved off SS for 2B for Cubs rookie Starlin Castro.

Castro, however, wasn’t a terribly good SS. Total Zone has him at -12, UZR at -3. So it wasn’t like Theriot was supplanted by Ozzie Smith. Castro, however, hit well enough to stick and the Cubs never tried switching their positions. The Dodgers never even let Theriot get an inning at SS so the totality of the circumstances doesn’t suggest Theriot was an exceptional defensive SS. And when a starting position player has a .633 OPS, he should probably be exceptional.

That’s the Cardinals middle infield. Schumaker and Theriot. A slap hitting OF and 2B at 2B and SS respectively.

I want to look forward to the season. Sometimes it’s hard.

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August 2, 2010

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Jake Westbrook and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Trade

It’s been a while since I posted anything.  There are a few reasons for that.  First of all, I happened to write two lengthy fictional posts about starting pitchers for the Cardinals which ended with those two pitchers getting injured.  And then those two pitchers were actually injured.  And they are still injured.  I’m not a superstitious person, but this gave me some pause.  Second, I started working on a novel and that took precedence over blogging about the Cardinals.  Third, the Cardinals just got depressing.  Even though they’re still in the playoff hunt (and thus a lot less depressing than some other teams) they’ve been playing with a sort of listlessness that makes watching the games infuriating.  I started paying attention the MLB at-bat feed rather than the actual game because there’s only so many times you can see someone swing at a Bud Norris “pitch” and miss.

But now Kyle Lohse is back to pitching again.  I’m done with my novel.  The Cardinals are playing better baseball, though they still seem befuddled by certain pitchers.  It’s time I start this back up again.  And what a time to start up, because the Cardinals have made an excruciatingly bad trade.

I ask you this: is there anyone out there that really, truly thinks it was a good idea to trade Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook?

Bernie Miklasz noted the following in his article discussing the trade:

Since the start of the 2008 season, Ludwick ranks second in RBIs, third in homers and fourth in slugging percentage among NL outfielders.
Let’s just let that sink in.  We traded this guy for Jake Westbrook.  Second in RBIS basically means nothing, Ludwick spent a lot of that time hitting behind Albert Pujols, who is on base all the time.  But third in HR?  Fourth in SLG?  An argument could be made that Ludwick is one of the top 10 outfielders in the NL.  And we traded him for Jake Westbrook.

A few Jake Westbrook facts:

Jake Westbrook has a 4.65 ERA.  This is not good. In offense-heavy years, this is hovering around average.  In 2010, this is definitely below average.  But of course, ERA doesn’t really show you the whole picture so…

Jake Westbrook has a 4.67 FIP and 4.41 xFIP.  Both of these stats take a varying amount of luck out of ERA and calculate it based on strikeout/walk/flyball/HR percentage.  While they don’t tell you how many runs a pitcher has given up over an average of 9 innings, they do a great job of telling you how many runs he will tend to give up over an average of 9 innings.  It also tells you that his ERA isn’t really predicated that much on luck or stadium effects.  He really is below average.

Jake Westbrook won’t pitch 9 innings anyway.  The few people who see a silver lining in this trade frame Westbrook as an innings-eater, a guy who the Cards needed because Garcia is going to pitch far more than he ever has, Carpenter is fragile, and the rotation needs stability.  But Westbrook is coming off Tommy John surgery, didn’t pitch last year, and probably has an innings ceiling just like Garcia.  He’s averaged only six innings a game.

Jake Westbrook isn’t signed for next year and won’t even be a Type B free agent.  In the last updated Elias rankings estimations by mlbtraderumors.com, Westbrook was nestled somewhere between Vin Mazzaro and Derek Holland.  He was far short of luminaries such as Brian Bannister and Josh Outman, who has not even pitched this year.  He gives the Cardinals nothing past this season.  Ryan Ludwick was under team control for 2011.

Basically the Cardinals traded an above average OF with one more year of arbitration for a 2 month rental of a below average starting pitcher.

In a vacuum I have no problem with either acquiring Westbrook or trading Ludwick.  Westbrook isn’t the prototypical Duncan project.  He already throws a sinker.  But he’s better than Jeff Suppan.  Ludwick was getting pushed out by Jay and was going to be expensive next year.  I get that.  But why this trade?  Certainly they could have gotten more value for Ludwick who, again, is third in the NL in home runs among OF over the last 2+ years.   Maybe they could have swung the prospects for a better pitcher.  Or a middle infielder.

And even more certainly, they could have acquired the obviously below-average and overpaid Westbrook without trading one of their best hitters.

The way the trade went down even proves the latter point.  The Cardinals sent Ludwick to San Diego, who sent Cory Kluber to the Indians.  Kluber is a 24 year old righthanded pitcher who is, like any decent 24 year old pitcher should, dominating AA batters.  He’s doing well but he’s old (24) for his level and he doesn’t have a great track record.  His career minor league ERA is 4.29 and his career minor league FIP is 4.00.  And he’s always been a little old for his league.

Did the Cards have anyone like this?  Of course they did.  Hell, PJ Walters is pretty close to Cory Kluber.  He’s a year older, but he’s followed almost exactly the same career path, succeeding in the minors as a slightly older prospect.  Walters’s career ERA/FIP are even better than Klubers  (3.66/3.75) in more innings.

Charles Fick in AA/AAA is the same age as Klubel and, again, has a similar career.  Who the hell is Charles Fick?  Yeah, I don’t really know either.  But that’s the point. Cleveland essentially took a nobody for Westbrook. A PJ Walters or Charles Fick. Why did we have to trade Ludwick?  We didn’t.  It was a stupid trade.  We could have and should have gotten Westbrook for a song.  Instead, we traded our starting RF.

That’s not a move that a contending team makes.
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June 8, 2010

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A Good Choice, A Good Day

In the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, the St. Louis Cardinals took Pete Kozma, a high school shortstop out of Oklahoma as the 18th overall pick.  This was an underwhelming pick by itself.  Kozma didn’t particularly distinguish himself in any fashion, and the best thing the scouting reports had to say about him was how hard he played.

Comparisons to David Eckstein and Aaron Miles immediately sprung to mind, which wasn’t exactly fair.  Kozma isn’t built in their mold.  He started off with far more talent than them, and just because some scouts decided to call him gritty (likely because he’s thin and white and plays shortstop) didn’t mean he was an undersized utilityman-in-waiting. Nevertheless, he wasn’t the kind of impact player you look to draft in the first round.

2007 was a top-heavy draft, a lot of talent was gone by pick 18, and in retrospect I think a lot of fans would have forgiven the Kozma pick.  I say they would have forgiven the pick, and not that they have, because Rick Porcello was on the board.

Porcello was arguably the second best arm in the draft after #1 pick David Price.  He wasn’t some diamond in the rough.  Everyone knew how good he was.  The Cardinals didn’t pick him because he was looking to receive one of the largest contracts in MLB draft history.  In fact, the only reason he fell to #18 was because of his contract demands.  Otherwise, he would have easily been taken in the first few picks.

To be fair to the Cardinals, several more teams, including large market clubs like the Dodgers and Phillies, passed on Porcello before he went to the Tigers at #27.   And of course several passed on Porcello before them.  Of course, Cardinal fans don’t remember that when they look at Pete Kozma’s .245/.320/.353 line in the minors and compare it to the fact that Porcello is contributing in the majors at age 21.   Given how much money teams shell out to the likes of Kyle Lohse, Brad Penny, and Ryan Franklin (to name a few overpaid pitchers), even Porcello’s ludicrous $11.1 million looks reasonable.

Cards fans still harp on that draft, and they’re right to do so.  So are the fans of at least a dozen other teams, who would undoubtedly go back and pay Porcello $11.1 million to pitch for their club right now. Fortunately, unlike some of those teams, the Cardinals have learned their lesson.

In the next two drafts (2008 and 2009) the Cards drafted the best player available.  First it was Brett Wallace, an already-polished college power hitter who would later help them snag Matt Holliday.  Then it was Shelby Miller, a high school RHP who didn’t have the lofty demands of Rick Porcello, but who confronted the Cardinals with a similar conundrum.  Miller, like Porcello, would have gone earlier in the draft if not for signability concerns.  He fell to the Cardinals, they snatched him up, and they paid his price tag.  Now he’s putting up better peripherals in single-A than Porcello did at the same age, Miller’s comically inflated ERA be damned.

Today, the Cardinals were faced with the Porcello problem once more.  When they went on the clock with the 25th pick, a top 10 talent was still on the board.  Zack Cox was, by some estimations, the best college position player in the draft.  Most mock drafts had him going at #7 to the Mets. But, like Porcello before him, Cox scared off teams with his contract demands (which will likely be even larger than what Porcello asked for) and was on the board at 25.

This time the Cardinals didn’t play it safe.  They didn’t pick Pete Kozma.  They chose the best player available at #25, arguably the best player available well before that.  I’ll be honest, I was shocked when the pick was announced.  But maybe I’ve underestimated the front office.  Maybe I should have learned from Wallace and Miller that they really do know what they’re doing now.  That we’re not going to see another Pete Kozma at #18.

2007 was a mistake.  Today I learned that, unlike some other teams, the Cardinals learn from their mistakes.

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May 17, 2010

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Matt Holliday, the Clean-Up Spot, and other Magicks

The Cardinals are no longer in first place in the NL Central.

This has caused a lot of panic among Cardinal fans, and some of that panic is justified.  This was a team that was supposed to walk away with the division.   So what’s wrong?

Right now, Matt Holliday is batting .170/.264/.191 with runners in scoring position. Over his career, he’s hit .293/.388/.487 with RISP.  In Cardinal wins, Matt Holliday bats .352/.425/.549.  In losses, he’s batting .242/.275/.364.  So clearly the problem is Matt Holliday, right?  He’s just not hitting like he used to with RISP.  So what happened?

The stats show that prior to this season, Matt Holliday was obviously a “clutch player”.  During the offseason, he was walking to his car when an old beggar woman asked him for a few cents worth of change, so that she might buy herself a sandwich at the local eatery.  She had been on the street for days and was starving, and Matt Holliday was the richest man she had encountered in all that time.  Despite the fact he had just signed the largest contract in St. Louis Cardinals history, he refused to help her out and accidentally pushed her to the ground as he passed her by.

Little did he know that the old woman was actually a powerful witch.  That night, she sacrificed two pidgeons, spoke aloud from the Neconomicon, and spread their entrails in a circle around a 1999 Matt Holliday Bowman rookie card.  She set the ritual ablaze and since then, Holliday has been unable to make solid contact with pitches when, and only when, there are men on second or third base.

The Cardinals’ disgraceful fall from first place spurred Tony La Russa to investigate this curse.  La Russa is a wily manager, who’s been around a long time, and he realized that if he could make sure that if Matt Holliday gets fewer at-bats with men on base then he will hit better overall.  The Cardinals’ leadoff hitters and #2 hitters have been terrible this year, so the clever Tony La Russa figures that if he bats Matt Holliday third, then the curse will have less of a negative effect on the team.  He will bat with no one on base more often and therefore hit better.   He will get on base and Albert Pujols, who has never shoved a homeless witch to the ground in his life, will successfully drive him in.

I take issue with this decision.  First off, we have no way of knowing the accuracy of the witch’s curse.  Matt Holliday was the target, but what if the curse actually attached to the #4 spot in the lineup?  Hexes are notoriously finicky, and since Holliday has been batting there all season, the effects may have transferred over.  Second, we don’t know whether the witch is capable of inflicting a second curse upon Holliday.  If she’s still angry about their encounter on the street, and she has access to at least one gecko, she’ll be able to sap him of all of his composure.  Clean-up hitters don’t need much composure, but can you imagine a #3 hitter with no composure?  It will be awful!  It would be even worse than a leadoff hitter without scrap or a #8 hitter without heart!  Third, shuffling the lineup ignores the real problem: the witch.  The witch isn’t going to be appeased by giving Albert Pujols fewer at-bats over the courtse of the season.  If she’s a Cardinals fan, that should just make her more mad.

No, if La Russa no longer believes that Holliday can hit with men on base, he needs to track down the witch and give her a sandwich.  That will solve the problem.  Holliday will have his clutch back, and we can go back to winning baseball games.

If you can’t find the witch, just bat Holliday second, in front of Pujols.  That way even if the cleanup spot has been tainted by the curse, it won’t affect one of our best two hitters.  Further, the witch could go ahead and sap Holliday of all of his composure and we’d be fine.  Because all you need as a #2 hitter is grit, and the spell to deplete grit is far beyond the capabilities of any American witch.

Wait, you think I’m talking crazy?  Well, I figured that some of my readers might be those who think that Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols should be switched because one of them can hit with RISP and the others can’t based on a month and a half sample size.  And I was just trying to speak to them in a language they might understand: fucking crazy talk.

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May 12, 2010

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The Adventures of the Crimson Ace: Episode I

In a world where justice is high and tight, where death dances on the outside corner, one man dares to walk the thin line between balls and strikes.  By day, he is Brad Penny, well-heeled major league baseball pitcher and man-about-town.  By night, he dons a red cowl and becomes…  THE CRIMSON ACE.

Today, The Crimson Ace meets his most fearsome foe to date, the dreaded DOMESTIC DISTURBER, a villain of little chivalry but great cruelty.  What will happen when these two powerhouses clash?  Find out in “The Adventures of the Crimson Ace: Episode I”.

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May 9, 2010

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Everybody Hates Shelby

In 2009, the Cardinals selected Shelby Miller as the 19th pick in June’s amateur draft.  He was considered one of the top high school arms, if not the best high school pitcher available in the draft, and likely only fell to the Cardinals due to signability concerns.  Fortunately, the Cards managed to work out an agreement with him at the last minute. But everyone reading this probably knew all that.  I’m here to tell you some other things about Shelby Miller, that you probably didn’t know.

Shelby Miller is a master of ping pong, honing his skills for years as a child in his mother’s basement.

If you were to look at Miller’s stats in Quad A, you might be concerned about him.  Even in small sample sizes, pitchers with stuff like Miller shouldn’t have numbers that look like this: 0-2, 5.32 ERA, 1.56 WHIP…  Those are Lohse-ian, not what you look for in a guy who was given a huge signing bonus.  Sure, he’s young, but he’s facing young guys, too.  So what’s wrong with him?

When Shelby Miller was in high school, he was in a serious accident after a deck collapsed at a party he was attending, killing eight people.  While there were 23 others on the deck, he always blamed himself for the accident.

The truth is, there’s no reason to panic.  Look beyond the statistics that get cited on ESPN, and you’ll see that he’s actually off to a fantastic start.  In 23.2 innings, he’s struck out 41 batters.  That’s what those of us who like to get excited about things call that “really fucking awesome”.  That’s the kind of K rate Tim Linecum was putting up in the minors a few years ago.  He’s only walked 9 batters, and given up two home runs.  His FIP, which is a statistic that predicts what ERA should be, rather than what it is, hovers around 2.30 according to Minor League Splits.

Shortly after receiving his signing bonus, Shelby Miller purchased a brand new home for his mother.  However, on the day he planned to surprise her with the house, the building caught on fire and his mother broke her ankle.  Miller ended up being arrested after the police arrived because of a passing resemblance to a local drug dealer.

So if he’s actually dominating A-ball, why are Miller’s ERA and WHIP so bad?  You see, Shelby Miller has been very unlucky.  Monumentally unlucky.  His BAbip, again according to Minor League Splits, is .464.  BAbip represents the opposing batter’s batting average on balls in play.  The average BAbip, quite conveniently, is somewhere around .300.  Everything above or below that is a combination of luck and defense.  Miller’s .464 is probably more stunning than his K rate. Almost half of every ball that is hit into play falls for a base hit.

In high school, Shelby Miller dominated his opponents, and put up the following numbers, which led to his massive signing bonus.  4 complete games, 8 wins, 15 Earned runs, a 1.60 ERA, .230 Batting Average allowed, .420 OPS allowed.

In short, there is nothing to worry about with Shelby Miller.  His “struggles”, if you can even call then that, are just the product of unbelievably bad luck.  Despite what you might hear, he actually is dominating his level, and doing so at a young age.

The fried chicken restaurant where Shelby Miller used to work was destroyed by a meteor that also killed a famous local reporter.

If you can’t tell, I’m pretty disgusted with the major league Cardinals right now, so I’ve chosen to focus on a bright spot in the future, and reassure everyone that even if the team is infuriating right now, our top prospect isn’t as awful as his front page numbers might suggest.

Unless he is the unluckiest man alive, Shelby “Hurley” Miller should be just fine.  Just don’t let him get on any planes bound to Australia.

None of the Shelby Miller facts in italics were true.  If you haven’t, you should probably watch LOST.  It’s even better on DVD.

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May 6, 2010

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Lohse-erella

Once upon a time there was a pitcher named Kyle Lohse.  Kyle lived in the Flyover Kingdom with his overbearing father Tony and his four wicked, vain stepbrothers, Chris, Adam, Jaime, and Brad.  Each one of his stepbrothers was beloved by the townsfolk and showered with adoration.  They spoke of the great riches and medals Chris had won, and those that they believed had been stolen from him by the feared giant near the sea, Baron Lincecum.  They told tales of Adam’s fearsome curveball, which was said to turn great warriors into stone statues.  Jaime was praised for his youth and his good fortune.  Brad, unlike the others, was a portly man of little talent, but he had slept with Alyssa Milano, so he was revered without question.

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