The Beltran And The Sea

Carlos Beltran was and outfielder who hit from both sides of the plate with a Marucci maple bat and he had gone fifteen years now without taking a ring. This was not for lack of effort. In the first six years he been in Kansas City where he learned to regard their logo, a crown, with a certain sense of irony. But after six years he traveled to Houston then New York then St. Louis and he proved his worth every October. But each year he would come home with his fingers bare.

In his first years in baseball he was really very fast. He stole bases and went stood out in centerfield. He was so fast that he flattened Mike Cameron with just his running speed. But now he was an old outfielder. His knees were crooked and his arm ached when he pulled it back for a throw. Everything about him was old except the crack of his bat which was the same tenor as a thunderclap and was bold and undefeated.

“Carlos,” Miller said to him as they climbed the stairs of the dugout. “I could go out there with you. We’ve won some games.” Beltran had taught Miller about baseball and the boy loved him.

Beltran looked at him with confident eyes. “If you were my player, I’d take you,” he said. “But you are Matheny’s and there are match ups.”

“He hasn’t much faith.”

“I know,” Beltran said. “But haven’t we?”

They sat on the bench and many of the other players made fun of Beltran. Others looked at him and were sad. The successful players of Boston and St. Louis already won their rings and displayed them in glass cases with wooden plaques and now only looked to add to their glory.

“Carlos,” Miller said. “Can I get your batting gloves for you? If I cannot play with you, I would like to help in some way.”

“You brought us here,” Beltran said. “You are already a man.”

“This is your sixth post season series in St. Louis. Do you think that is a lucky number?”

“Six is a serious number,” Beltran said. “How would you like to see me bring in a ring dressed out with six hundred diamonds? Think perhaps I can?”

“Keep your bat warm, old man,” Miller said. “Remember we are in October.”

Keep my bat warm, Beltran thought. He hoisted the maple stick on his shoulder and, swinging it back and forth with a certain menace, he stepped onto the field. There were other players at other positions stretching and sprinting on the grass and Beltran could hear the roar of the crowd cheering for them but not for him. Beltran stopped in in the on deck circle and waited.

Beltran watched as Matt Carpenter faced the pitcher. Lester was left-handed but Beltran was ready.

This is the World Series. Beltran’s at-bat will be only one at-bat in all the at-bats that will ever be. But what will happen in all the other at-bats to come will depend on what Beltran does in this at-bat. It had been that way all year. All of baseball is that way.

He had no mysticism about baseball though he had played it for so many years.  Most players had superstitions. Beltran had facts. He did not wear a phiten necklace because of its magnetic properties but because its color gave his eyes a certain comforting warmth. He did not eat an entire chicken before each game for luck but to be strong in October for the truly important home runs. He did not tap his bat to hear its sound as a ritual. It was a science. The sound of a good bat is different than the sound of a bad bat. Beltran did not use a bad bat.

Carpenter fouled a pitch back towards the on deck circle. The ball rolled towards Beltran. He knelt down and picked it up.

“Baseball,” he said. “I love and respect you very much. But I will kill you dead before this day ends.”

Beltran  would have liked to come to the plate with a man aboard but the next pitch retired Carpenter. It was a cutter out over the plate and Carpenter should have taken hold of it for a drive but this was baseball. Baseball is a game of skill and a game of luck. The wind always blows harder in your face than at your back. Beltran knew that better than anyone. But he did not dwell on that.

After fifteen seasons without a ring Beltran knew he was not a lucky player. It was good to be lucky. Ryan Theriot was lucky. Pete Kozma was lucky. It was better to be exact. Every at-bat is a new at-bat. When the luck came Beltran ‘s way he would be ready for it.

Beltran stepped to the plate for the first time in a World Series game. He would not be defeated.

Everybody Hates Shelby

In 2009, the Cardinals selected Shelby Miller as the 19th pick in June’s amateur draft.  He was considered one of the top high school arms, if not the best high school pitcher available in the draft, and likely only fell to the Cardinals due to signability concerns.  Fortunately, the Cards managed to work out an agreement with him at the last minute. But everyone reading this probably knew all that.  I’m here to tell you some other things about Shelby Miller, that you probably didn’t know.

Shelby Miller is a master of ping pong, honing his skills for years as a child in his mother’s basement.

If you were to look at Miller’s stats in Quad A, you might be concerned about him.  Even in small sample sizes, pitchers with stuff like Miller shouldn’t have numbers that look like this: 0-2, 5.32 ERA, 1.56 WHIP…  Those are Lohse-ian, not what you look for in a guy who was given a huge signing bonus.  Sure, he’s young, but he’s facing young guys, too.  So what’s wrong with him?

When Shelby Miller was in high school, he was in a serious accident after a deck collapsed at a party he was attending, killing eight people.  While there were 23 others on the deck, he always blamed himself for the accident.

The truth is, there’s no reason to panic.  Look beyond the statistics that get cited on ESPN, and you’ll see that he’s actually off to a fantastic start.  In 23.2 innings, he’s struck out 41 batters.  That’s what those of us who like to get excited about things call that “really fucking awesome”.  That’s the kind of K rate Tim Linecum was putting up in the minors a few years ago.  He’s only walked 9 batters, and given up two home runs.  His FIP, which is a statistic that predicts what ERA should be, rather than what it is, hovers around 2.30 according to Minor League Splits.

Shortly after receiving his signing bonus, Shelby Miller purchased a brand new home for his mother.  However, on the day he planned to surprise her with the house, the building caught on fire and his mother broke her ankle.  Miller ended up being arrested after the police arrived because of a passing resemblance to a local drug dealer.

So if he’s actually dominating A-ball, why are Miller’s ERA and WHIP so bad?  You see, Shelby Miller has been very unlucky.  Monumentally unlucky.  His BAbip, again according to Minor League Splits, is .464.  BAbip represents the opposing batter’s batting average on balls in play.  The average BAbip, quite conveniently, is somewhere around .300.  Everything above or below that is a combination of luck and defense.  Miller’s .464 is probably more stunning than his K rate. Almost half of every ball that is hit into play falls for a base hit.

In high school, Shelby Miller dominated his opponents, and put up the following numbers, which led to his massive signing bonus.  4 complete games, 8 wins, 15 Earned runs, a 1.60 ERA, .230 Batting Average allowed, .420 OPS allowed.

In short, there is nothing to worry about with Shelby Miller.  His “struggles”, if you can even call then that, are just the product of unbelievably bad luck.  Despite what you might hear, he actually is dominating his level, and doing so at a young age.

The fried chicken restaurant where Shelby Miller used to work was destroyed by a meteor that also killed a famous local reporter.

If you can’t tell, I’m pretty disgusted with the major league Cardinals right now, so I’ve chosen to focus on a bright spot in the future, and reassure everyone that even if the team is infuriating right now, our top prospect isn’t as awful as his front page numbers might suggest.

Unless he is the unluckiest man alive, Shelby “Hurley” Miller should be just fine.  Just don’t let him get on any planes bound to Australia.

None of the Shelby Miller facts in italics were true.  If you haven’t, you should probably watch LOST.  It’s even better on DVD.