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April 24, 2011

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No, They’re Saying Foo-Ranklin

Normally, I don’t like it when Cardinals fans boo Cardinals players. It’s usually stupid. I can’t help but remember Ray Lankford’s 2000/2001 seasons, when the crowd at Busch absolutely turned on the only player who was worth a damn for the team in the early 90s and one of the best Cardinals outfielders of all time. He wasn’t even playing badly. His OPS was around .840, which isn’t fantastic for a corner OF, but it’s certainly not bad.

But that was ten years ago, before OPS was on the scoreboard of almost every stadium and overlay of almost every broadcast. All most people saw was his .250 average and his abundant strikeouts. Suddenly Ray Lankford, who was the face of the Cardinals before McGwire, was greeted and ushered from the plate with boos. It was ridiculous, and I was thankful that the Cards brought Lankford out of retirement for one more season in 2004. Not because he still had talent–though a 99 OPS+ is fairly impressive for a guy who took a year off–but so he could get a more fitting send off from the Cards and their fans.

This is different. I understand why Cards fans are booing Ryan Franklin. It’s not disgraceful. We haven’t turned into New York or Philadelphia. We’re fed up, and not just with Franklin.

Saturday’s game was nationally televised. Anyone who knew when to turn the television back on after the rain delay watched it from coast-to-coast. And I’m fairly certain the Tony La Russa was the only person in the country who believed that Ryan Franklin should come into a tie game with the bases loaded against the division-rival Reds.

Being a baseball fan can be very frustrating, especially in situations like this. I guess I’m used to the occasional moment where I want to slam my head into my computer out of frustration. For example, bunting Chris Carpenter over in the third inning with Ryan Theriot. Or, for that matter, bunting Yadier Molina to third so that Tyler Greene can “bat” against Aroldis Chapman. That stuff annoys me, but I’ve accepted it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. In the big picture, I know that it hurts the team more often than it helps, but I can at least get excited about the possibility that it will work. I can still appreciate small ball even if I think it’s stupid.

But I can’t appreciate what is happening with Ryan Franklin. A few days ago, I indicated that Franklin would get better. He’s always depended on luck, and he’s had a lot of it the last couple of years. I wasn’t arguing that he should stay in the closer spot–he should have never been there to begin with. But I thought he could get better and have some value in long relief. Maybe he still can, but now that I’ve had a couple more chances to watch him pitch…something is wrong. He never had great stuff or location, but he had just enough to put himself in a position to benefit from good luck. I don’t think he has that any more.

TLR should see this. Duncan probably does see this, and I’d be very curious to hear what he had to say about Franklin, but the organization has kept him on a tight leash with the media ever since his “adventure” posting on one of the stltoday.com message boards. But today, despite mounds of evidence against such a move, TLR put him in a tie game. In fact, he put him in during a higher leverage at bat than most save situations ever see. And, of course, we all know what happened.

So, yeah, fans are going to boo. They are not booing Ryan Franklin the Person. This has nothing to do with him. Outside of maybe a few people who have problems with unruly facial hair, every one of those booing fans would much rather be cheering Franklin. They are booing out of frustration. They know that he shouldn’t be pitching in a high leverage situation. Everyone knows that. And yet it keeps happening. The only thing they can do is voice that frustration.

It’s only going to get worse. In a few days, Brian Tallet will be eligible to come off the disabled list and TLR/Mo will have a tough choice to make. It’s not really a tough choice. Neither Tallet nor Franklin should have roster priority over Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez. Unfortunately, we all know TLR wants multiple lefthanders in the pen, so dropping Tallet is not an option. Miller and Motte are understandably safe. That leaves three spots for Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Salas, and Sanchez.

The decision should be between Franklin and Batista. Maybe Franklin is hurt. It’s entirely possible. Even if he’s not, the Cards FO could say he has an “oblique strain”, DL him, and then send him down on rehab to recover. If that’s impossible, for whatever reason, Batista should go. Unfortunately, I think everyone knows that the real choice will be between Salas and Sanchez. One of them will go down. Franklin will remain in the majors. And the boos will continue. They will intensify.

Maybe they should. Maybe that’s the only thing the fans can do in the face of the obstinance of Cardinals management. TLR and Mo need to realize that the fans aren’t satisfied. We don’t want to see TLR’s friends play baseball, damn the results. We want to see wins. And we’ve all noticed that Ryan Franklin is giving us only losses.

I promise this will be my last Ryan Franklin entry (at least until Salas or Sanchez is sent down and he remains and I lose my mind).

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April 18, 2011

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Four Games

Bernie Miklasz wrote something in his column this morning that got me thinking:

A St. Louis team that’s 8-8 could easily be looking at a 12-4 record if not for the frequent ninth-inning pyrotechnics.

A lot of people say that it is early, that you cannot draw overarching conclusions about the entire season based on 16 games. That’s true, and a lot of what we’ve seen in these 16 games proves that. We can’t expect the offense to be as terrible as it was in the first week or as amazing as its been in the last week.

However, the first 16 games matter just as much as the last 16 games. Four games in April have the same effect on the standings as the last four games in the season. It is still the difference between a 88 win team and a 92 win team. Often, it is the difference between playing in October and sitting home in October.

Enough people, including me, have slammed Ryan Franklin. He was never a great closer, or a good pitcher. He survived on a steady diet of luck but I don’t think anyone expected him to regress this quickly. And he’s not this bad. Guys who “pitch to contact” and give up a lot of fly balls are easily swayed by the winds of fortune. In 2009, they helped him glide to a 1.92 ERA. In 2011, they’ve battered him for a 11.57 ERA.

There are other issues, such as the fact he’s either throwing his cutter more often, which is exactly what we saw in the Great Jason Isringhausen Debacle of 2008. His location isn’t good, but it’s never been. It’s possible that age is catching up to him, which can be devastating for a guy who throws just hard enough to get outs with his fastball.

But unless he’s hurt, it’s very likely that if TLR keeps running him out there, he’ll end up with an ERA right in line with his 4.5 xFIP. He might even have another string of scoreless innings and successful saves that convinces everyone that he’s “bacK” or “regained his bulldog mentality” or something equally ridiculous.

Hell, if not for certain weather conditions–pressure systems, humidity, and yes, gusts of wind–we might not even be having this discussion. Those fly balls would have hung up and found their way into gloves, and Ryan Franklin wouldn’t have to look over his shoulder at Mitchell Boggs. The sportswriters would be praising him for his toughness and playfully joking about tightrope antics.

But that’s not what happened, and now we’ve lost four games we probably should have won. We don’t know what those four games mean yet, but if we’re one game back of the Reds in September, those errant fly balls are going to hurt.

Something good has to come out of this run of bad luck, bad weather, and bad pitches. Ryan Franklin needs to be taken out of the closer role. Not because he blew four saves in a row. Save percentage is bullshit. It doesn’t mean anything. He could have easily saved all four of those games. Because he shouldn’t have been the closer in the first place, and now everyone can see it. Franklin’s problems are no longer the realm of the sabermetric and the predictive. We’re no longer talking about unsustainable BAbips or suspiciously high xFIPs. Those stats have given way to an atrocious WHIP and a disastrous ERA.

Franklin doesn’t “pitch to contact”. He pitches to the warning track. He shouldn’t be facing the best hitters in one run games. He should be pitching long relief, handling RH batters, eating innings.

This isn’t on Franklin. This is on TLR now. Just like in 2008, when Izzy was faltering, and even the most basic stats reflected it, you can’t blame the pitcher. Everything is there for the manager to see that something has to be changed.

The damage is only four games now. Hopefully TLR has learned something from those four games.

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April 7, 2011

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The Hits Keep on (not) Coming

Tony La Russa threw a tantrum during his post-game press conference today. Reporters were asking him the questions that were on the minds of Cards fans everywhere. Why isn’t the team hitting? His response, via this STLtoday.com article:

For everybody listening out there (TV audience), you think I’m being unreasonable? It’s the FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON. I don’t understand this. Are you going to tell me Yadier doesn’t drive in big runs? Are you going to tell me Albert can’t hit? Are you going to tell me the second baseman and shortstops haven’t hit? David Freese? You don’t think he’s going to hit? You think Matt’s gong to hit? You think Colby’s going to hit? You think Berkman’s going to hit? The answer is ‘no’ to all those things?’

Did you (interrogators) accomplish your goal? Three, four times, you ask so I get excited and get upset? That’s not fair. It really isn’t.

Then he walked away. You could say he was a little irritated.

Angry Red Birds

Artist's Rendition of Tony La Russa's Press Conference

I understand that this is a frustrating time for TLR. It’s a frustrating time for everyone who wants to see the Cardinals win. And I’m sure that TLR wants to see them win as much as anyone, though playing Skip Schumaker at 2B is a funny way of showing it. The anger, however, is uncalled-for. That’s because this slump is absolutely mystifying. Every pitcher we face has turned into Bud Norris.

The reporters have every right to ask their questions. Yes, it is only the first six games. But the first six games count just as much as the last six games. This has also been the first six games for the Padres and Pirates pitchers. Maybe they didn’t get the memo that these games don’t matter.

It’s a small sample size, obviously. But the numbers are so bad and the pitchers in question are so bad that it has to call something into question. Let’s look at some of the lowlights:

In these first six games, the Cardinals had 8 extra base hits. This number is remarkably low. The Houston Astros, the worst hitting team in the NL last season, averaged about 2.4 XBH a game. Houston slugged .362 last year, the Cards are struggling around .300. In this same time, the Cards have 10 GIDP. They are more likely to get doubled up with a man on first than drive him home with a 2b, 3b, or HR. Last year, the Giants led the league by hitting into a double play almost once a game. The Cardinals are on pace to double that.

But as I already pointed out, it’s a small sample size. The Cardinals won’t slug below .300 or hit into 300 double plays. That would be historically terrible. Even the 1899 Cleveland Spiders slugged .305. BUT consider the starting pitchers the Cardinals have faced in these six games:

Tim Stauffer: A 28 year old with 39 career starts. Stauffer has spent most of his career in the bullpen, amassing a 4.04 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in spacious Petco. He throws around 90 mph. A former 4th pick overall, he’s got a nice breaking ball but not much else.
Clayton Richard: Arguably a left-handed Tim Stauffer. Has similar stuff and has put together a career 4.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. Struggles with control a bit more than Stauffer, but has a slightly better K/9. Relies more on his fastball. Richard at least had a decent season in 2005 (again, getting his home starts in Petco). In fact neither Stauffer or Richard are particularly bad pitchers. They’re just mediocre.The real crap starts with…
Dustin Moseley: 5.13 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in his career. 4.57 xFIP. K/9 under 5. Doesn’t have any dominant pitches. Doesn’t make up for it with stellar control. Shut down the Cards completely for 7 innings.
Charlie Morton: Maybe the worst. 5.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.54 xFIP. Hits around 91-92 with his fastball and according to fangraphs, he threw 85% fastballs in his game against the Cards. Despite this, he walked 5 batters. He only gave up 1 run. He’s not a power pitcher. He was throwing mainly one pitch. He wasn’t locating that pitch. Five walks, two strikeouts, one run. FUCK.
James McDonald: The fact that he’s the Pirates 5th starter should say everything. The Cardinals didn’t figure him out, but they didn’t get shut down like he was Charlie Morton. They managed 2 runs in 4.2 innings. Still… He’s the Pirates 5th starter.
Kevin Correia: 4.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.47 xFIP. Gives up a lot of fly balls. Unlike the other guys the Cards faced, has a much longer record of mediocrity. There’s probably a decent amount of video tape on him in the Cards’ library, too. Still managed to shutout the Cards.

So that’s it. Those are the six starters who have given the Cardinals fits over the last six games. Yes, TLR, it’s only six games. It’s only the first six games of the season. But what is this team going to do when it faces Roy Halladay? Cliff Lee? Tim Lincecum? We put up historically bad numbers against six mediocre-to-awful pitchers. We didn’t hit a single one of them hard. Not one.

That’s why there were so many questions at the press conference today. The reporters’ goal wasn’t to get TLR upset. They were concerned, because this “FIRST WEEK OF THE SEASON” has been absolutely terrible.

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April 4, 2011

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Just One Jaime Garcia Short of a Disaster

Without Jaime Garcia, I’m not sure how I’d be feeling about the Cardinals right now. As it is, I’m pessimistic. But that pessimism is tempered by the victory today. It’s always thrilling to see a CG shutout, especially one as dominant as Garcia’s performance against the Padres. He struck out nine, walked only two, and allowed four hits over 102 pitches. The game lasted just a tick over two hours.

It was a masterful, breezy performance that featured only two scary moments. The first was the sixth inning, where Garcia’s control faltered after giving up a hit to the opposing pitcher and he needed a heads-up play from should-be 2B Daniel Descalso to get out of a jam. The second scary moment was going into the ninth inning, when I thought La Russa might pull Garcia for Ryan Franklin.

I feel good about Garcia, since he was a question mark coming out of spring training. But just about everyone else has been disappointing in the first three games of the season.

Game one was marred by a few tough breaks, but many of the Cards problems were highlighted out of the gate. It was hard to ignore the sub-par defense from Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot up the middle. I’ve harped on that enough, though. The hitting was spotty and just like last year they just couldn’t string enough baserunners together to get runs across the plate. Miguel Batista is probably the worst pitcher on the staff and he’s apparently the late-inning set-up guy.

And then there’s Ryan Franklin, who ultimately blew the save when he gave up a game-tying home run to Cameron Maybin in the ninth inning.

I think it’s important to focus on Franklin. Franklin is not a good pitcher. He’s never been a good pitcher. He’s had some incredible luck with the Cardinals over the last couple of years and put up some impressive front page statistics that have put him in the role of “closer”. He’s had a good ERA and save conversion rate, and that would be fantastic if it actually meant anything.

The truth about Franklin is that his best pitch is a fastball that hovers around 91 mph and has just enough movement to keep it out of batting practice. He only strikes out six batters per nine innings, and walks 2-3. He’s given up a lot of HR in every year except 2009 which, unsurprisingly, was the year he had a fluke 1.92 ERA. Historically, over 40% of batted balls in play against Franklin are fly balls, so he doesn’t get double plays or even keep the ball in the infield.

At some point, the Cardinals are going to have to move Franklin out of the closer role. I don’t particularly believe in the necessity of a dominant closing pitcher. It’s probably better to leverage individual situations and use the pitcher better suited for the moment. However, I don’t see Tony La Russa–who practically invented the modern closer–moving towards that sort of idea. So whoever has the vaunted “closer” label will see a lot of one run and two run leads. Franklin, who doesn’t have great control and gives up a lot of fly balls, is not who we want out in those situations. He was never who we wanted out there. We just got away with it for a long time. We can’t expect to continue to get away with it.

In game two of the series, Cardinals pitchers managed to give up 11 runs to a lineup that featured Orlando Hudson in the third spot. Westbrook and Motte looked awful, though they didn’t have much help from Ryan Theriot, who looked even worse than expected. I was pining for Brendan Ryan even after he was thrown out on a bone-headed play in Seattle later that day.

Sunday should have been a disaster, too. The Cardinals bats were dead, flailing hopelessly against the ace pitching of Padres’ fifth starter, Dustin Moseley. He looked like Bud Norris out there, inducing weak hit after weak hit. This is the sort of pitcher the Cardinals, even without Holliday, should light up. He’s a perpetually fringe 29 year old righthander with an 89 mph fastball. He has more earned runs in his career than strikeouts. Today, he held the Cardinals to a single tally (not earned) over seven innings. We got four hits off of him, all singles, and if not for Jaime Garcia’s absolute dominance he would have led his team to a sweep.

That’s bad. Real bad. The Cardinals need to improve if they’re going to do anything but break our hearts this season. They have to hit the pitchers everyone else hits. They have to have someone better in the ninth for close games–Jaime Garcia won’t finish it every time. And damn it, they have to be able to field baseballs that are hit between third and first.

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March 29, 2011

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Miguel Batista or: How I Learned How to Stop Pitching and Give Up the Bomb

The Cardinals opening day roster was announced today. There were very few surprises. Kyle McClellan won the starting role vacated by Adam Wainwright when he announced his injury and broke the spirits of Cardinals fans everywhere. Jason Motte fortunately didn’t lose his spot because of a weak spring. Tyler Greene, Ryan Theriot, and Skip Schumaker are all present and willing to give up their individuality to blend into an indistinguishable mass of hustle, scrap, and grit. The only real shock is the presence of rookie Bryan Augenstein instead of Fernando Salas.

Augenstein came out of nowhere to put together a fantastic spring. He struck out 13 and walked only 3 in just over 11 innings. He completely deserves his spot on the MLB roster. If everyone is determined to make the competition for the last bullpen spot a battle between Augenstein and Salas, then the Cardinals made the right choice. Augenstein out-pitched Salas and earned a spot on the team.

But it’s not that simple. The real story here isn’t that Augenstein beat out Salas. The real story, or what everyone should be talking about, is the selection of Miguel Batista over Salas.

Miguel Batista is the 40 year old author of the crime novel Through the Eyes of the Law and, apparently, still a major league pitcher. Last year, with the Washington Nationals, he had an ERA of 3.70 and a 1.33 WHIP. These numbers are deceptively mediocre. He wasn’t nearly that passable.

In 82 innings, Miguel Batista struck out 55 batters and walked 39. He gave up 9 HR and had a BAbip of .257. His career BAbip is .299. So basically he was just lucky. He was lucky to be sufficient. And he’s only a year older now. His stuff is fading. He’s made an admirable career of being just decent enough (which is a lot better than most people could ever be in MLB) but it’s probably time to hang up the spikes.

I’m sure some people will point to Batista’s stats in spring training as the reason he made the team. He had a 1.59 ERA! That’s amazingly low! That would have been one of the best seasons in history if extrapolated to 162 games!

Spring training stats are meaningless. Especially for relievers. Relievers enter games in the later innings, when the starters are on the bench. The prospects and AAA fodder are taking at-bats. Most of the batters Batista faced in spring training were not MLB caliber players.

And that makes the next part worse. Miguel Batista didn’t really have a good spring. In eleven innings, he only struck out 6 and walked five. He also hit one batter and gave up 9 hits. That’s not good. That’s bad. He had a bad spring training and he still made the team.

Meanwhile, Fernando Salas gave up only 4 hits. He struck out 8 and walked 7 (still not great). He didn’t give up any HR. He even had an !!ERA!! of 0.73. So not only did he do the important things as well, or better, than Batista…he was also better at the unimportant things. He was better in every way.

And that’s not surprising. While Miguel Batista was lucking into mediocrity last season, Fernando Salas was putting up good numbers for the Cardinals in MLB and AAA. Salas had 29 strikeouts and 15 walks in thirty MLB innings last year. In AAA he had an exceptional 11.1 K/9.

There is no reason for Miguel Batista to make the MLB team this year while Salas continues to play in AAA. The bullpen is a weakness for the team. Instead of putting the best players out there, a washed-up veteran gets playing time over a MLB-ready rookie.

I wish I could say this was a surprise.

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March 25, 2011

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Middle Infield: A Work in Regress

A few days ago, the Seattle Mariners announced that Brendan Ryan would be their starting shortstop. Jack Wilson would move to second base. Ryan, of course, was the Cardinals shortstop last year. Wilson is a former Cards farmhand. He was traded 10 years ago for LOOGY Jason Christiansen. This was Walt Jocketty’s second worst trade as Cards GM, which says more about Jocketty’s success than Wilson’s talent.

Ryan is a very similar player to Wilson. They are both phenomenal fielders and poor hitters, though they show unexpected flashes of adequacy at the plate that can probably be explained by sample size and luck. It’s strange to see them paired up. They will combine to form a terrifying vacuum of offense in the lineup and on the field.

I want to poke fun at the Mariners middle infield. I want to call out the strange decision to let Jack Wilson and his clone get at-bats in the same game. I’m not sure I like their thinking that other infielders can play 2b even if they aren’t experienced there. It didn’t work terribly well with Chone Figgins, and Wilson hasn’t played there in the pros. But I can’t focus on any of these things in good faith because I look back at the Cardinals and they’re doing something even worse:

Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot.

Whenever I start to think about opening day, whenever I start to get excited that baseball is going to begin, I remember that our middle infield consists of Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot. They are memento mori. They remind me that I, too, will die.

Skip Schumaker is not a 2B.

To be honest, I thought the experiment was interesting. I was glad the Cardinals were willing to experiment with the defensive spectrum. I’m still glad the Cardinals are willing to experiment with the defensive spectrum. Lance Berkman in RF scares me, but it’s an exciting gamble.

But Schumaker is not a 2B. We tried. It was a worthy attempt. He’s a hard-nosed, athletic player who didn’t hit well enough to be a corner OF but played infield in college. I don’t blame the Cardinals or Tony La Russa for trying to make him a 2B. If it worked, it would have been great. But it didn’t. After two years, he’s still defensively one of the worst infielders in the majors. Total Zone numbers put him at -6 runs in the field last yar. UZR puts him at -15.4. Fielding Bible +/- had him at -9. He had 16 errors.

I’m wary about fielding statistics. Sometimes they disagree with each other. Sometimes they aren’t consistent year-to-year. But every single one agrees that Skip Schumaker is an absolutely horrible infielder. It’s a consensus, and no one who sees him play would argue against it.

Of course, if he hit well I’d be happy to ignore all those numbers. Defensive statistics aren’t as good as offensive statistics and it’s easy for a good hitter to thrive as a bad fielder, even at a position like 2B. Jeff Kent was a bad 2B and it was foolish to complain about his defensive issues. Dan Uggla is awful but his OPS is in the .800s.

Last season Schumaker had a line of .265/.328/.338. Those aren’t the numbers you want if you’re putting up with a terrible infielder. Those are the sort of numbers that are somewhat easily replaceable, even on the infield. Those are the sort of numbers that would get a guy released if he was an outfielder. And Skip Schumaker is an outfielder.

Schumaker, however, is only half the problem. The Cardinals are replacing the defensive wizardry of Brendan Ryan with the defensive shoddy workmanship of Ryan Theriot. Theriot comes to the Cardinals from the Cubs by way of the Dodgers.

Theriot hit .270/.321/.312 last year, which is to say he was a worse batter than Skip Schumaker. He’s a better fielder, though, and if he was going to be the 2B at least that would be something to feel good about. However, Theriot will be the starting SS for the Cardinals. He barely played at SS last year, but (to be fair) it wasn’t entirely his fault. He was moved off SS for 2B for Cubs rookie Starlin Castro.

Castro, however, wasn’t a terribly good SS. Total Zone has him at -12, UZR at -3. So it wasn’t like Theriot was supplanted by Ozzie Smith. Castro, however, hit well enough to stick and the Cubs never tried switching their positions. The Dodgers never even let Theriot get an inning at SS so the totality of the circumstances doesn’t suggest Theriot was an exceptional defensive SS. And when a starting position player has a .633 OPS, he should probably be exceptional.

That’s the Cardinals middle infield. Schumaker and Theriot. A slap hitting OF and 2B at 2B and SS respectively.

I want to look forward to the season. Sometimes it’s hard.